Following in a psychological and musicological tradition beginning with Leonard Meyer, and continuing through David Huron, we present a functional, cognitive account of the phenomenon of expectation in music, grounded in computational, probabilistic modeling. We summarize a range of evidence for this approach, from psychology, neuroscience, musicology, linguistics, and creativity studies, and argue that simulating expectation is an important part of understanding a broad range of human faculties, in music and beyond.

Enculturation is known to shape the perception of meter in music but this is not explicitly accounted for by current cognitive models of meter perception. We hypothesize that meter perception is a strategy for increasing the predictability of rhythmic patterns and that the way in which it is shaped by the cultural environment can be understood in terms of probabilistic predictive coding. Based on this hypothesis, we present a probabilistic model of meter perception that uses statistical properties of the relation (...) between rhythm and meter to infer meter from quantized rhythms. We show that our model can successfully predict annotated time signatures from quantized rhythmic patterns derived from folk melodies. Furthermore, we show that by inferring meter, our model can better predict the onsets of future events than a similar probabilistic model that does not infer meter. Finally, we demonstrate how our model can be used in a proof-of-concept simulation of enculturation. From this simulation, we derive a class of rhythms that are likely to be interpreted differently by enculturated listeners with different histories of exposure to rhythms. (shrink)